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Aug 12, 2023

STEVE DeSHAZO: As MLB trade deadline nears, it's buyer beware

New York Mets' Justin Verlander looks at the fans applauding him as he leaves the field after being removed from a baseball game in the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals, Sunday, July 30,

New York Mets' Justin Verlander looks at the fans applauding him as he leaves the field after being removed from a baseball game in the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals, Sunday, July 30, 2023, in New York.

Buyer beware is a phrase usually reserved for yard sales and back-alley transactions. But as Major League Baseball’s Tuesday afternoon trade deadline approaches, it seems to serve as an appropriate warning for general managers.

When the news broke Saturday afternoon that New York Mets were dealing Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers, it represented one of the most stunning white flags in baseball history.

Owner Steven Cohen pulled the ultimate all-in, darn-the-luxury-tax move during the off-season, amassing a record $355 million payroll that included $43 million each for aging aces Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Instead of an expected dynasty, Cohen has an overpriced squad with a losing record (50-55) that entered Monday 18 games behind the financially shrewd Atlanta Braves and five games out in the NL wild-card race.

The Scherzer deal, on the heels of shipping closer David Robertson to Miami, also opened speculation that the Mets would continue conducting what would the one of the costliest fire sales every. General manager Billy Eppeler insisted the team is not rebuilding, but until 4:01 p.m. Tuesday arrives, baseball’s attention will remain focused on Queens.

But as much grief as the Mets deserve, let’s not completely pile on them. Amazingly, if the playoffs had started Monday, the teams with the five highest payrolls, according to Spotrac — the Mets, Chicago White Sox ($325 million), Chicago Cubs ($303 million), New York Yankees ($279 million) and San Diego Padres ($246 million) — would all be watching.

Meanwhile, the teams with the American League’s two best records had two of baseball’s four lowest payrolls: Baltimore was 29th at roughly $69 mlllion (or about 1 1/2 Scherzers) and Tampa Bay was 27th at $78 million.

Granted, three of the lowest five payrolls — No. 26 Washington, No. 28 Kansas City and No. 30 Oakland — were a combined 108 games under .500, with a run differential of minus-518.

So don’t draw the conclusion that spending is universally bad. The Orioles are built around a young nucleus that largely isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, but will bring some tough ownership decisions when it does. And the Rays, like the A’s and Royals, are a small-market team that can’t afford huge salaries, but has figured out how to stay competitive on a budget.

No, the point is one that applies to baseball teams as well as the working-class families who can’t afford season tickets. While you can’t usually win without spending, you have to be careful where your money goes.

The Nationals are a good example. They never would have won the 2019 World Series had they not overpaid on Jayson Werth’s $126 million free-agent contract a decade earlier and paid Scherzer $210 million over seven years, beginning in 2015. Werth’s deal made D.C. seem like a destination after decades of futility, and Scherzer’s deal stands as one of the best in baseball history.

Yet the combined $48 million that the Nats owe Stephen Strasburg (who likely will never pitch again) and Patrick Corbin (24-53 since 2019) this season have hamstrung the franchise’s rebuilding efforts. With the Lerner family looking to sell, Mike Rizzo can’t break out the checkbook, and no free agent worth a call from Scott Boras would be interested.

Still, it could be worse for the Nationals. They chose not to break the bank to keep Jordan Zimmermann or Anthony Rendon, who didn’t live up to their big deals elsewhere. They traded away Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto for inexpensive prospects that at least give them hope of an Orioles-style resurgence within three years. None of the ex-Nats has won a title in that time,

And while Bryce Harper (another big one that got away) won a second MVP and helped the Phillies reach the 2022 World Series, he and Turner sat third in the NL East Monday, 12 games behind the Braves.

It should give pause to any team considering making a record-breaking offer for Shohei Ohtani this winter.

The Angels have taken Ohtani off the trade market during his walk year, but maybe they shouldn’t have. The Halos have MLB’s No. 7 payroll ($236 million) that also includes oft-injured stars Mike Trout (Ohtani’s main rival as best player) and Rendon, and have one playoff appearance in he past decade to show for it — with work to do to get there this year.

Things can change in the next two months (and the next 24 hours). But the lesson may be that bright shiny things aren’t always worth the money.

Steve DeShazo: 540.374.5443

[email protected]

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